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37% Expect Improvement in Iraq Over Next 6 Months Positive Views Up Nine Points Over the Past Month | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Survey of 1,000 Adults February 5-6, 2005
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February 6, 2005--At the beginning of 2005, just 28% of Americans thought the situation in Iraq would get better over the next six month. A Rasmussen Reports survey at the time found that 50% of Americans expected things to get worse. Now, a week after the Iraqi elections, 37% of Americans believe things will get better in Iraq and 36% believe they get worse. Just before the Iraqi election, 31% of Americans thought the situation was getting better. Last week, immediately following the election, 37% said things would get better and 40% said they would get worse. Forty percent (40%) of Americans now believe the U.S. mission in Iraq will be a success while 41% say it will ultimately be deemed a failure. Just before the Iraqi elections, 38% said the mission would be a success and 46% said it would be a failure. The most recent survey of 1,000 adults was completed on Monday and Tuesday, February 5 and 6, 2005. Those are the two nights following the Iraqi elections and preceding the President's State of the Union Address. Demographic details are available for Premium Members. Forty-four percent (44%) of Americans now say the nation is safer than it was before 9/11. Thirty-nine percent (39%) say it is not. When the year began, 41% said the nation was safer and 43% said it was not. On all data, there is a strong partisan divide. Republicans, by a 63% to 16% margin, believe that the situation in Iraq will improve over the next six months. Democrats, by a 55% to 17% margin, believe things will get worse. Those numbers are virtually unchanged from our survey immediately following the Iraqi election. As for those not affiliated with either party, 27% now say better and 39% worse. A week ago, 50% of the unaffiliateds said they expected things to get worse. Last fall, 33% of voters said that things were getting better in Iraq while 43% said they were getting worse. As documented in The GOP Generation, the polarizing national security issues dominated Election 2004. The report notes that, ironically, “The President’s policy in Iraq and the larger War on Terror will begin to unify the nation [over the next couple of years]... If the President’s policies are working, a solid majority of voters will rally behind them. If his policies are not working, a solid majority of voters will rally against them. Either way, we will be moving towards unity.” The recent survey, however, found that the move towards unity has not yet begun. By a 68% to 18% margin, Republicans believe that the US mission in Iraq will ultimately be considered a success. The GOP view on that point changed little from our prior survey. Democrats, by a 60% to 20% margin, say the mission in Iraq will ultimately be judged a failure. Prior to the voting over the weekend, 74% of Democrats said the mission would be a failure. A separate survey found that Republicans tend to believe that America's best days are yet to come. Democrats tend to believe they have come and gone. Rasmussen Reports recently released a 130 page special report on Election 2004. The GOP Generation documents how and why Republicans have the potential to control both the House and the Senate for at least a generation. It is "not the result of a single election… President Bush is in a position to close a sale with American voters that was first proposed by Ronald Reagan a generation ago...” Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist says that “The GOP Generation captures with clarity the dynamics that are propelling this Republican era to staggering new heights.” To keep up with our latest releases, be sure to visit the Rasmussen Reports Home Page.
This survey of 1,000 Adults was conducted by Rasmussen Reports February 5-6, 2005. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. |
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